We have started to plan out final project ideas. See the Final Project Information post for details.

Also, if you would like to review or revisit part of Ziyi’s presentation from Thursday/Friday of last week, you can find his notes here.

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We have started to plan out final project ideas. See the Final Project Information post for details.

Also, if you would like to review or revisit part of Ziyi’s presentation from Thursday/Friday of last week, you can find his notes here.

We finished the lesson on ANalysis Of VAriance (ANOVA) today, and you have a short assignment to complete based on it. Please note that you really don’t need to do most calculations by hand; you can do them on the calculator. The assignment will count towards your marking period grade.

- ANOVA Powerpoint – the slide show I used in class (the link to the site with the practice tables is here)
- ANOVA Homework – Due on
**Monday, 5/22**

- F-table – for running the Scheffe Test. Note that if you need a df that is not on the table explicitly, you should use the next lowest value (e.g., there is no 35, so use 30).

The questions to the 2017 Statistics exam have been posted. If you’re curious, you can find my answers 2017 Free Response Answers. For instructions on how to find your scores in July and on getting credit for the course in college, check out these instructions: Getting AP Score and College Credit.

All project information can be found online here. Note the following due dates:

**May 25**– Proposals due (though you are certainly welcome to turn your proposals in before this date**May 31**– Data collection complete. You should be done with your data collection by here.**June 5 –**Presentations complete. The schedule will be announced on Tuesday, so all groups should be ready to present immediately.**June 9 –**Written reports due. These will be submitted online. Details on what these should look like will be posted soon.

- NPR Hidden Brain – a podcast by NPR Social Science correspondent Shankar Vedantam. Contains descriptions of interesting social and psychological experiments.
- Freakonomics – a series of popular microeconomics books by Steven Levitt and Stephen Dubner that includes interesting research on exploring the motivations behind cheating teachers and sumo wrestlers, bizarre baby names, and crack-selling mama’s boys. The books are a fascinating read, and the blog adds a lot of interesting ideas.
- Mythbusters – a Discovery Channel show that tried to take on common myths and misconceptions and test whether their veracity.

If you’re looking for the review information, you can find it here.

Your AP Statistics Test is Thursday afternoon. Be outside the new gym by 11:50 with your calculator and pencils (non-mechanical, remember!). Do not bring your bag or your cell phone; find somewhere to put them.

Things you had better remember (these are my thoughts, see pages 608-610 of your review book for some further points):

- The formulas for the mean/standard deviation of a sampling distribution of means and a sampling distribution of proportions are on your formula sheet. Whenever you’re being asked to calculate a mean or a standard deviation, check to see if it’s one of these.
- Probability questions will come in three categories
- Direct calculation based on a finite sample space (like rolling dice). Write out all the possible outcomes and count which ones are the ones you want. This also includes two-way tables. Don’t try to use fancy formulas for those; just count!
- Number of successes questions. For example: “how many model E cars would you expect to see in a 2000 car sample?” or “what’s the probability that at least one out of the four drivers is speeding?” These are applications of the binomial probability model and should be calculated appropriately using the formulas on your sheet.
- Number of trials questions. For example: “how many chips would you expect to need to check before finding a defective one?” or “what’s the probability that the 5th donor is the first with Type-B blood?” These are applications of the geometric probability model. The formulas are not on your sheet, and so you should memorize them: q^(K-1)*p for a general probability and 1/p for the expected value.

- How to combine the standard deviations of two or more random variables. Remember: variances always add.
- How to read the regression output of a linear association. What do “constant,” “estimate/coefficient,” “prob” all mean? Refer to pages 111-112 in your review book or page 729 in your textbook.
- Know the difference between stratified and cluster sampling and how to identify/use them.
- Know the important conditions for each of the inference procedures:
- Everything: Random Condition
- Any z-test: Success/failure condition
- Any t-test: Nearly Normal/Large Enough condition
- Any chi-square test: Expected cell frequency condition
- Any 2-sample/2-proportion test: groups are independent from each other.
- Also: know when to use a 2-sample t-test vs. a matched pairs t-test

- Be mindful of notation. Don’t use x-bar when you should be using µ. Don’t use p when you should use p-hat.
- Context, context, context. Always frame your answers in the context of the situation. Don’t say, “I am 95% confident that the true proportion of success is between 22% and 37%.” Say instead: “I am 95% confident that the explosive sensor will accurately detect hidden explosives 22% to 37% of the time.”
- Be complete with your responses. When choosing between two possibilities in a free response question, explain why one possibility is wrong and why the other one is correct.
- At the same time, don’t give more information than is requested. If the question asks you to describe the shape of a distribution of data from a histogram, don’t discuss center and spread. If the question asks you to explain your randomization procedure for an experiment, you don’t need to explain what the response variable is, how you’re going to measure it, and what a statistically significant outcome would look like. If the question asks you to merely
*calculate*a confidence interval, you don’t have to interpret it.

Finish the multiple choice questions from Practice Exam 3 and take a look at the tips on pages 608-610. While the wording of questions in the review book may be a bit poor at times, these tips are excellent.

Over the weekend, work on the Multiple Choice questions 1-20 from Practice Exam 3 of the review book.

Also, take some time to review the conditions for each of the hypothesis test procedures we have looked at. There will be a **quiz** on Monday where I’ll ask you to name the procedure and conditions necessary for five scenarios.

Complete the Investigative Task questions for the 2011-2014 exams (if you were in class today, you’ve already completed the response for 2011). We’ll grade these together in class tomorrow.

My two sections have gotten slightly out of sync with each other, so your assignments are as follows:

- 1st period, finish the 2015 Free Response questions you were assigned. We will grade them in class tomorrow
- 3rd period, stick with the review calendar: read through Topic 14 in your review book and complete questions 1, 3, and 6.

This weekend, complete questions 1, 5, 6 or 2, 3, 4 from the 2015 Free Response as you were assigned in class. If you weren’t in class, flip a coin and complete 1,5,6 on a heads and 2,3,4 on a tails.

You completed questions 1 and 6 from the 2016 Free Response section in class today. Tonight, please complete the rest – questions 2-5

It’s spring break. We just finished the long walk from February break to April. When we get back, we’ll only have 7 short weeks before the end of the school year. But you have a week’s rest before we get there. So here’s your assignment for this week:

Stay up until 3. Sleep in until 2. Sleep, rest. Read a new book. Read a book you read when you were 8. Read a book to a younger sibling, or to kids in your neighborhood. Play a new video game. Go to watch a movie. Go *make* a movie. Start a YouTube Channel. Write a song, play a song, or sing a song. Write a poem. Draw something, anything. Go to the Commons and play music for the people there, then eat at Waffle Frolic. Order something from a restaurant you’ve never tried before. Play a board game with your family. Go for a hike in Cornell’s Plantations or in a gorge. If you’re in AP Stats, work a bit out of your review book (Practice Exam 1 would be a good choice!). If you’re in Fractals, keep playing around with mySolarSystem and complete 1d/e and all of 2 of the Iterated Functions sheet. Go for a run before the sun rises. Go for a swim. Bingewatch an entire season of The Great British Baking Show on Netflix. Look at the stars at night. Make dinner for your family. Do your chores. Do someone else’s chores. Visit a relative you haven’t seen in a year. Talk to someone who has significantly different opinions than you. Go to the farmer’s market. Play Pokemon Go (there’s an egg event happening with double XP!). Work on some IXL practice problems. Go to the SPCA and pet the cats (or the dogs). Take the road less traveled. Whatever you do to rest, do it. Just make sure that when you come back on the 24th, you’re ready to work. We’re almost done.

We have started the review process for the AP Statistics exam. The schedule can be found here: AP Review Schedule – 2017. This schedule may change as our needs develop, but we will be more or less sticking to it over the course of the next month.

- Noon, Wednesday, April 26 – Practice AP Exam (Small Gym)
- Noon, Thursday, May 11 – Actual AP Exam (Small Gym)

We have started our process for reviewing for the AP exam. Remember that your practice exam will be in the afternoon of **Wednesday, April 26**.

For now, all assignments will be out of your Barron’s review books. Please bring them in with you each day. Today, I want you to read the Introduction on pages 1-3, and then read through Topic 4 – Exploring Categorical Data. Do the review exercises at the end (pages 144-149)

Your Unit 7 test is on Monday (our last one before the AP!), so spend some time this weekend to study for it. You got some Unit 7 Review materials in class today, so you should spend some time working on that, or do some more with the review exercises on pages 744-752

Your final Unit test will be on **Monday, April 10th**. We start review today, with exercises 8, 12, 13, and 21 parts b and c from the review section on pages 745-749. Please also identify the test, the distribution used (z, t, X^2) and, if applicable, the degrees of freedom you would use for the scenarios presented in questions 6, 9, 11, 14, 17, 20, 29, 31, and 32.

We will go over answers on Friday, then have our test on Monday.

Read pages 715-729 (skip the sections on Standard Error of Predicted Values)

From the exercises on pages 733-735, do 28, 30, 43.

AP Preadministration sessions have begun. All AP students must attend one of the sessions listed below to complete some administrative tasks before you can take your actual AP exam. They will shut the doors promptly at the start of the time, so don’t be late. Also, you need to bring traditional wood pencils, no mechanical pencils allowed!

The sessions are:

- Tuesday, April 4th (Day 1)
- 0th period
- 3rd period
- 7th period
- after school

- Wednesday, April 5th (Day 2)
- 1st period
- 4th period
- 5th period
- 8th period

- Thursday, April 6th (Day 3)
- 0th period
- 2nd period
- 6th period
- after school

Read pages 706-715, stopping once you get to the section on Standard Error of the Slope

From the exercises on pages 730-736, do exercises 1, 7, 24, 35

Your homework tonight is the very last Investigative Task (before the one on the AP exam, of course): Chapter 25 – AP Scores. I had you look at this in class and plan out which Chi-Squared test you would use for each question, but if you want to change your mind once you get started, that is okay. Just include an explanation for your change, about why you think the test you’re doing is the better option for that question.

As before, your response should be completed in a Google Document and submitted to me (bkirk@icsd.k12.ny.us) using the typical naming scheme “LastName.FirstName.Ch25InvTask”. For example, mine would be “** Kirk.Benjamin.Ch25InvTask**“.